From Food Security to Food Resilience: Why the UK Needs a Strategic Approach to Horticulture

This summer’s drought is putting UK food production under pressure. Crops are failing, forage for livestock is becoming scarce and wheat yields are 13% below average. Food prices are already responding in July, wholesale prices for tomatoes were reported to be up more than 60%, iceberg lettuce 90% and potatoes more than 40%.

More than 100 food businesses and organisations have warned the Government that the UK could face a “food shock” driven by climate disruption, geopolitical instability and rising production costs.

This is not simply a short-term problem. It is a warning about the food system we are building for the future.

The UK needs a strategic approach to horticulture that asks three basic questions: what should we grow, where should we grow it, and how should we grow it? The answer must be based not on the climate and supply chains of the past, but on the more volatile climate we are moving into. And it must restore, rather than undermine, the natural systems on which food production depends.

Growing more of the right food

We have a long way to go. The UK currently imports 44% of its vegetables and 86% of its fruit, while domestic fruit and vegetable production has fallen by 16% since 2015. Many of these imports could be produced here, reducing our exposure to increasingly vulnerable global supply chains.

Analysis by Green Alliance suggests that replacing half of the imported fruit and vegetables that could be grown in the UK would require less than 50,000 hectares. This could bring overall food self-sufficiency back to around 66% the level last seen in 2000 while adding at least £1.9 billion to farmgate production.

Achieving this would require a range of growing systems, including greater use of glasshouse production.

But this is not simply a question of producing more. It is about producing the right food in the right places using the right systems.

A horticultural strategy needs to consider what will remain productive in the decades ahead, as prolonged droughts, heatwaves and unseasonal rainfall become more likely. That means diversifying the crops and varieties we grow, improving water-use efficiency, strengthening soil management and investing in better forecasting and climate intelligence.

Climate adaptation should be a criterion for deciding what Britain grows not something we bolt onto horticulture after the fact.

Food resilience cannot come at nature’s expense

Growing more food cannot be the only objective. We should not solve one environmental crisis by deepening another.

Peat is a powerful example. Around 22% of UK vegetables are grown on lowland peat, while degraded peatlands are responsible for around 3.5% of the UK’s annual greenhouse gas emissions.

Some of our most productive horticultural land is also among our most environmentally valuable and carbon-rich land.

That means the future horticultural map of Britain needs to be planned spatially. There should be no expansion of horticulture onto lowland peat, alongside a clear pathway to relocate existing production where necessary. We also need a UK-wide end to the sale of peat for horticultural use.

Encouragingly, this approach aligns with the new Land Use Framework, which broadly advocates putting the right land to the right use, with the right system. The principle should be simple: use land more intelligently, not simply more intensively.

What we grow must match what we eat

Resilience is not only about what we grow or where we grow it. It is also about creating demand for the food we want Britain to produce.

Green Alliance’s latest analysis estimates that the amount of fruit and vegetables in the average UK diet would need to increase by 86% to meet dietary guidance. Yet only around one in three adults in England currently eat five or more portions a day.

This creates an opportunity to connect horticultural policy with healthier diets: more fruit and vegetables, more pulses and greater consumption of UK-grown seasonal produce.

The two strategies need to be designed together.

A horticultural strategy without a dietary strategy risks producing food for which there is insufficient demand. A dietary strategy without a horticultural strategy risks encouraging consumption of foods that increasingly depend on vulnerable overseas supply chains.

We need to align what Britain grows with what Britain needs to eat.

Five priorities for a resilient food system

Collaborative action across Government, farmers, growers, retailers, food businesses and consumers can build a more resilient UK food system.

1. Plan the land: create a national map for resilient horticulture

The Land Use Framework should deliver a national spatial strategy for horticulture, identifying where different types of production should expand, contract or relocate.

This should include horticultural growth zones, while identifying areas where production should not expand because of their importance for peat, biodiversity, water or other ecosystem functions.

2. Future-proof the crop: invest in climate-resilient horticulture

We need a long-term horticultural R&D programme focused specifically on climate adaptation. This should cover crop varieties, growing systems, water efficiency, soils, controlled-environment production and forecasting. It should be treated as critical national infrastructure investment, not simply as agricultural innovation.

3. Move beyond peat—and protect nature

The Government should set a clear pathway to prevent further horticultural expansion onto lowland peat and support the relocation of production where necessary. At the same time, we should restore peatlands, expand wetter farming where viable and end the sale of peat for horticultural use across the UK.

4. Build the market: make healthy UK-grown food the easy choice

Supply will only change if demand changes too. Diet and consumer behaviour therefore need to be part of the horticultural strategy. This could include changes to Government procurement, greater visibility for seasonal British produce and clearer signals about future demand, giving growers the confidence to invest.

5. Create the investment framework: make resilience investable

A more resilient food system will require upfront capital, research and long-term certainty.

Growers cannot make major investments in glasshouses, water systems, soils or new production methods if they are operating against short-term contracts and short-term policy. Resilience needs long-term investment and long-term policy certainty.

From food security to food resilience

Britain does not need to grow everything it eats. Nor should food security become an excuse to put every acre into production. What we need is more sophisticated than either approach.

We need to know which foods we should grow, where we should grow them and how we should grow them taking account of the climate we are moving into, the nature we need to restore and the diets we want the population to eat.

That means moving horticulture from the margins of agricultural policy to the centre of food security policy. A horticultural strategy should be more than a sector growth plan. It should be a national resilience strategy, connecting food, farming, health, climate adaptation, nature recovery, land use, energy and trade.

The prize is significant: more resilient domestic production; healthier diets; new investment and jobs; less exposure to climate shocks overseas; and land managed in ways that strengthen, rather than undermine, the ecological systems on which our food ultimately depends.

The choice is not between food security and nature. The real choice is whether we plan intelligently enough to deliver both.