What will be the key sustainability trends in 2024?

It is a fool’s errand, but every year I try to predict key sustainability trends. 

For this year, I have looked at four mega trends and the implications these might have on the sustainability agenda. Here are my best guesses – how do they sound to you?

 

1.  Political upheaval

This is a historic election year with more than 2 billion voters heading to the polls in 50 countries including the United States, India, Russia, the UK and South Africa.

From a sustainability perspective the implications are significant. A Trump victory will undoubtedly see a significant reversal of the progressive policies of the Biden administration. Alongside Putin, Modri and cheerleaders such as Javier Milei and Geert Wilders the world could be entering a period of extreme volatility with greater risk of conflict and social disorder.  The World Economic Forum has identified geopolitical volatility as the biggest risk in the year ahead. 

Whatever, the election results it is certain that the climate agenda will become a divisive wedge issue portrayed by the right wing as an expensive distraction and an excuse for greater government intervention restricting freedom of choice. The sustainability community must be acutely aware of this risk and ensure that it doesn’t become boxed into this corner by building a broad coalition of support from across society and using more sophisticated forms of communication.

2.     Weather extremes

An intense episode of the planet-warming El Niño climate pattern is nearing its peak. The last time this happened it pushed the planet to record warmth and many scientists are speculating that 2024 will be even hotter than a record-breaking 2023. 

A hotter planet will lead to more extreme and prolonged weather events including drought, flooding, wildfires and extreme urban heat.  These weather events will cause localised disruption but increasingly could have global significance hitting food security, adding to inflationary pressures and creating volatility in supply chains.   

3.     Food Security

The warning lights are starting to flash on global food systems.  In July, India imposed a ban on the export of non-basmati white rice fearing rice shortages due to El Nino disruptions. In September, it was reported that Europe had almost run out of local olive oil supplies due to extreme weather damaging harvest.  Spanish farmers have warned that drought will severely hit crop productions. These weather-related disruptions are adding to the impact of the war in Ukraine which has hit key food groups and fertiliser exports.

Creating a more resilient food system will become increasingly important requiring a significant reduction in food waste, more diverse diets and more efficient sustainable farming techniques.

4.     Global Agreements

Against the backdrop of uncertainty, global agreements continue to slowly evolve. For the first time, COP28 agreed on the need to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. Whilst seemingly ‘too little too late’ it is an important message setting out a clear direction of travel. 

COP29 in Azerbaijan is likely to be messy and largely insignificant, but companies and governments will need be ready for COP30 in Brazil.  This will be the point at which the validity of the transition from fossil fuels will be significantly assessed and will see a greater focus on food and nature-based solutions. It is possible that the COP process will be revised as the global community moves into a ‘delivery phase’. We could see smaller, more targeted meetings rather than the increasingly unwieldy and expensive gatherings such as was witnessed in Dubai.

Companies also need to keep an acute eye on global trade agreements with the development of initiatives such as the EU’s Carbon-Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) giving an indication of policy change in the pipeline.

Given these mega-trends, how is the sustainability agenda likely to evolve? I predict there will be six over-arching themes.

Just Transition

In response to the cost-of-living crisis and an increasingly divisive political discourse, there will be a greater emphasis on a just transition ensuring that those least able to pay are not adversely hit by the transition process. We are already starting to see progressive policies in France which are making it easier for all sections of society to move to a lower carbon economy and I expect these policies to be replicated.

Resilience

The impact of extreme weather, war and pandemics is becoming ever more apparent and the need to build more resilient systems will grow. True resilience needs fundamentally different approaches embracing greater diversity, adaptive learning, increased connectivity and more inclusivity. I suspect that the sophistication and understanding of this debate will increase.

Innovation

Innovation thrives in the face of crisis. New thinking has already had a significantly positive impact on carbon emissions and provides a ray of hope for the future. As more people and organisations understand the scale of the challenges, I anticipate there will be increased levels of innovation. Identifying the winners and ensuring they have the necessary resources to move to scale rapidly will be fundamentally important.

Civil Society

Government and companies will need to be acutely aware of the mood of civil society. There is increasing anger, despair and frustration amongst campaigners which could create more legal actions, greater scrutiny and disruptive campaigns. This could fuel an already toxic public debate.

Food and Nature

There is a growing understanding that addressing climate change requires systemic changes and can’t just focus on energy related carbon emissions. COP28 brought to global attention the need for sustainable food systems and the importance of nature-based solutions. These themes will become increasingly important in the year ahead.

Authenticity

With greater scrutiny and increased public understanding the days of ‘green-washing’ are nearing their end. Companies and governments will need to demonstrate the steps that they are taking now – rather than relying on long-term broad statements. Regulators and campaigners will ramp up pressures for statements to be accurate and authentic. The danger is that this could lead to ‘green hushing’ with organisations unwilling to shout about successes which could hinder progress.

Radical Collaboration

There is growing recognition that no one organisation or sector can adequately address the scale and complexity of the challenges we face. There will be a need for new levels of radical collaboration bringing together cross-sectoral groups committed to driving fundamental and systemic change. Creating this type of collaboration is complex and will require new levels of thinking and different types of catalytic organisations.

In summary

I would be intrigued to hear your thoughts on the above. Just over a year ago, I started Sizzle, a new Community Interest Company intent on creating new collaborative approaches helping to address some of the above challenges. If you want to know more, please do get in touch trewin@sizzle.org.uk